The feeling of security when betting is a feeling that we rarely experience. Uncertainty is precisely the factor that provides that touch of excitement and adrenaline that we feel when we risk, when we think we might lose.
But what if I told you that there are a number of strategies that minimize risk to practically 0? Today we are talking about value bets and sure bets, two expressions related to great benefits for users to the detriment of bookmakers.
However, using these strategies is not always the best option. Value bet and sure bet have advantages and disadvantages, which we must know in order to get the most out of our bets.
Are you curious? No wonder. Find out why these concepts are so well known among betting enthusiasts, understand how they work and discover which one suits you best.
What is a value bet?
As its name suggests, a value bet is a value bet, i.e., a bet whose odds are higher than the real probability of occurrence.
These value bets are usually produced from erroneous estimates made by the bookmakers themselves. In these cases, the users “beat” the bookmakers, breaking the myth of “the bank always wins”.
Let us give you an example: imagine a soccer match whose teams have the same chances of winning, i.e. 50-50. The odds we would have to pay for the bets must be even, for example 1.5 in both cases. If we were to find a bookmaker that offered an odd higher than 1.5 for either of the two outcomes, we would be looking at a value bet. Experts have established that, in the long run, value bets are the most profitable sports betting strategy.
But how do we find a value bet? We can use two methods:
- Mathematical method: we will have to calculate the probability offered by the bookmaker for a given event based on the odds it provides. Then, we will calculate our own percentage based on the statistical data that we have previously selected and that we believe offer us a more feasible reality.
- Experienced method: if you do not have time to perform these statistical analyses, use your experience as an expert in the sport in question to detect possible value bets. For example, if experience has confirmed that when x team plays against a certain team, its chances of winning are multiplied, you are really stating that it has a better chance of winning than the bookmaker shows, therefore, we would be looking at a value bet.
If we extrapolate this strategy, so well-known in the world of sports betting, to the card game par excellence, the value bet is one of the key methods to achieve constant profits in online poker. What do we get with the value bet in poker? To increase the chips, we win in a given pot. It is a kind of bet that should only be made after the river, when we are sure that we have the best hand and we want to take more money or chips from our opponents.
Now that we know what a value bet is, what is a sure bet?
What is a sure bet?
In this case, a sure bet is literally translated as a safe bet. These consist of taking advantage of the different estimates established by the bookmakers so that, by betting on all the possibilities of an event, we obtain a sure profit. In these cases, the aforementioned factor of uncertainty has been completely eliminated since we are covering all possible outcomes of a bet.
The truth is that, feeling secure when betting money, is appreciated. For this reason, many users wonder how to find value bets. Searching for this type of bets by yourself can become a complicated task, in which the margin of error is wide. Therefore, there are some companies that are responsible for locating this type of bets and alert you when the opportunity arises.
These websites or apps request, in exchange for this service, a monthly fee, but is it worth it? Generally, the profits we get from sure bets are around 2%-5% of the amount bet. To put a figure on it, sure bets do not usually make a profit of more than €5 per bet, while the monthly fee of some of these websites exceeds €10 per month.
At this point, you are probably wondering if you can lose with sure bets. Despite the security they offer, the truth is that yes, and it will depend on factors beyond the control of both the bookmaker and ourselves, such as the injury of a player, the end of the match being played and the cancellation of bets.
Which is better?
A few years ago, it was easy to determine which of the two strategies was the best or the most chosen by users. Sure bets enjoyed a golden season, however, their performance and extracted benefits have been decreasing over the years.
Let’s be clear, certainty does not exist. While it is true that we can find sure bets and be right betting on them, we still risk losses. On the other hand, it is a practice penalized, in some cases by bookmakers. In fact, if they detect that a user has made them, they could cancel his account.
Value bets, on the other hand, are exposed, in the same way as sure bets, to detection and penalization by bookmakers. If you have applied this strategy continuously in betting applications, the bookmaker will probably know your strategy and penalize you by limiting your plays.
However, we must say that both strategies represent an opportunity to multiply our winnings, experiencing such an addictive adrenaline rush, although not so much for the losses, but for the winnings.
The important thing when placing these bets is to have a great capacity for analysis and to be aware of sporting events, teams, in short, of current sports news. You must also remember that, in order to use this type of strategies, you must be registered in several bookmakers to establish comparisons.